Sindusfarma monthly prescription (Sep. 23): Sales Slowdown

Sindusfarma data for Sep. 23 reported an overall deceleration in pharma retail sales with sell-in and sell-out (i.e., using PMB as a proxy) reaching +8.7% y/y and +6.6% y/y in September (or +10.9% and +8.3% y/y during 3Q23, respectively), dragged down by anemic volume growth (i.e., sell-in volumes -0.9%/+0.8% y/y in Sep.23/3Q23). Generic sell-in sales also decelerated to 16.8% y/y (or +15.1% LTM y/y and +18.8% y/y 3Q23). In short, the slowdown of sales in September somewhat supports our more cautious view regarding HYPE3’s top-line trends in Q3 (recent downgrade here). Conversely, we think it underscores RADL3’s top-notch execution and continued market share gains, with retail sales expected to remain c.+15% y/y in 3Q23 (recent update here).