16 Aug 2023 17:29:52 ET
CITI’S TAKE
Sindusfarma data reported some modest acceleration of sell-in sales in July (+11.6% y/y, reaching +16.0% y/y LTM), mainly driven by pricing as volumes remained broadly stable y/y. Moreover, sell-out sales improved modestly to +8.0% y/y in July (vs. 6.9% y/y in June), reaching +13.0% on a LTM basis. Of note, generic sales continued to fare batter with sell-in/sell-out reaching +18.6/11.1% y/y (or +13.8/16.1% y/y LTM). Albeit gradually evolving from a weaker June, the industry growth continues to be constrained by tough volume comps in 2022, which, in fairness, might start to subsidize more meaningfully by Q4.
Figure 1. Brazilian retail pharma sell-in (LTM)PPP – Split by volumes and pricing (in % y/y)
© 2023 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.
Notes: PPP – Pharmacy Purchase Price
Source: Citi Research, IQVIA, Sindusfarma
Figure 2. Brazilian retail generics sell-in (LTM)PPP – Split by volume and pricing (in % y/y)
© 2023 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.
Notes: PPP – Pharmacy Purchase Price
Source: Citi Research, IQVIA, Sindusfarma
Figure 3. Brazilian retail/generics pharma sell-out (LTM)PMB (in % y/y)
© 2023 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.
PMB – Pharmaceutical Market Brazil
Source: Citi Research, IQVIA, Sindusfarma
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Fonte: Citi Velocity